Hours before the election day, poll analyst Nate Silver released his last forecast for the 2024 US Presidential race, a projection underscoring the razor-thin margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. According to Silver’s final model run, conducted just after midnight, Harris narrowly edges Trump in 40,012 out of 80,000 simulations, equivalent to 50.015% of possible outcomes. Trump, on the other hand, wins in 39,988 simulations, or 49.985%, a difference that highlights just how unpredictable the result could be.
Despite Harris holding a fractional edge, Silver reiterated the unpredictability of the outcome, calling it a "pure toss-up." In this scenario, 39,718 of Trump’s wins were outright victories, while the remaining 270 scenarios ended in a 269-269 Electoral College tie. In those tie cases, the decision would likely fall to the US House of Representatives, which currently leans Republican, hinting that Trump could still prevail in such an event.
Close battle in battleground states
Silver’s forecast incorporates the latest battleground polling data, suggesting an intense competition in states that could determine the election. According to the Silver Bulletin, the polling averages are tightly contested:
These polling figures mirror other recent surveys, including the NYT/Sienna and Morning Consult polls, which have similarly found Harris and Trump in near dead heats in several swing states.
In an accompanying note, Silver Bulletin analyst Eli Mckown-Dawson warned of potential polling inaccuracies that could skew the final outcome. He pointed out that polling errors often affect both candidates and that even a small error could decisively shift the result. “If polls are exactly accurate, we’re looking at a nail-biter on Tuesday night,” Mckown-Dawson wrote. However, he cautioned against overconfidence in any projections, especially given the narrow polling margin.
Both Trump and Harris made their final appeals on Monday, visiting key states and urging voters to turn out. Harris ended her campaign in Philadelphia, rallying in front of a crowd on the famed “Rocky” steps, calling for a victory inspired by underdogs. Trump, meanwhile, held his closing rally in Michigan, urging his supporters to "put ourselves in a position to win."
As Election Day unfolds, millions of voters are expected to flood polling stations across the country. With tensions running high and concerns about post-election violence, security measures have intensified, particularly in major cities. Businesses in Washington DC and other locations have taken precautionary measures, with storefronts boarded up in anticipation of potential unrest.
Despite Harris holding a fractional edge, Silver reiterated the unpredictability of the outcome, calling it a "pure toss-up." In this scenario, 39,718 of Trump’s wins were outright victories, while the remaining 270 scenarios ended in a 269-269 Electoral College tie. In those tie cases, the decision would likely fall to the US House of Representatives, which currently leans Republican, hinting that Trump could still prevail in such an event.
Close battle in battleground states
Silver’s forecast incorporates the latest battleground polling data, suggesting an intense competition in states that could determine the election. According to the Silver Bulletin, the polling averages are tightly contested:
- Nationally, Harris leads Trump by a mere 1-point margin at 48.6% to 47.6%.
- In Pennsylvania, a must-win state for Harris, Trump holds a slim 0.1% lead.
- Michigan, another pivotal state, shows Harris leading by 1.2%.
- Conversely, Trump has slight advantages in North Carolina (1.1%), Georgia (1.0%), and Arizona (2.4%).
These polling figures mirror other recent surveys, including the NYT/Sienna and Morning Consult polls, which have similarly found Harris and Trump in near dead heats in several swing states.
In an accompanying note, Silver Bulletin analyst Eli Mckown-Dawson warned of potential polling inaccuracies that could skew the final outcome. He pointed out that polling errors often affect both candidates and that even a small error could decisively shift the result. “If polls are exactly accurate, we’re looking at a nail-biter on Tuesday night,” Mckown-Dawson wrote. However, he cautioned against overconfidence in any projections, especially given the narrow polling margin.
Both Trump and Harris made their final appeals on Monday, visiting key states and urging voters to turn out. Harris ended her campaign in Philadelphia, rallying in front of a crowd on the famed “Rocky” steps, calling for a victory inspired by underdogs. Trump, meanwhile, held his closing rally in Michigan, urging his supporters to "put ourselves in a position to win."
As Election Day unfolds, millions of voters are expected to flood polling stations across the country. With tensions running high and concerns about post-election violence, security measures have intensified, particularly in major cities. Businesses in Washington DC and other locations have taken precautionary measures, with storefronts boarded up in anticipation of potential unrest.
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