The 1 reason 'failing' Vladimir Putin is unlikely to meet Zelensky tomorrow

is unlikely to travel to Istanbul to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. But with Turkey's President willing to guarantee the international pariah's security, the reason has less to do with fear of assassination or even arrest, and more to do with a fundamental difference between Kyiv and Moscow's positions.

The Russian leader was forced to make the offer as a show of willingness following successful talks between Zelensky and Donald Trump at the . That impromptu conversation, brokered by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, stood in stark contrast to the mauling Zelensky received at the Oval Office in February. It led to a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine just days later, and has been seen as signalling a shift in position by President Trump. Unable to persuade Zelensky to capitulate, Trump now sees Moscow as the real obstacle to his ambition of being seen as the peacemaker who ends the three-year conflict.

Though Putin has stated the talks would be "without preconditions", there has been no shift in 's stance. Basic conditions such as the annexation of certain territories, the demobilisation of the Ukrainian army, no Ukrainian membership of NATO, and Zelensky stepping down from power remain Moscow's red lines - all of which have been rejected by Kyiv.

Putin had hoped to gain credit for suggesting talks in Istanbul, imagining they would take place behind closed doors and be drawn out, buying him time to sow divisions in Europe. But Zelensky's counter-offer to meet in person has turned the tables.

Unlike Putin, Zelensky's priorities - notably securing a 30-day ceasefire already backed by allies including the US - are seen as far more attainable.

US and European officials held talks on May 12, during which Washington made it clear that it wanted to allow talks between and before increasing pressure on Putin.

Officially, the Kremlin has warned that exerting pressure on Moscow is "useless" and that it does not respond to ultimatums.

But this leaves Putin in an invidious position - damned if he does not rise to the challenge, and damned if he does without a willingness to compromise.

"If Erdogan promised Putin that he will be safe in Turkey, he can be trusted to deliver on this. But Putin will still not go because he feels there is nothing to discuss with Zelensky," said Yuri Felshtinsky, co-author of 'Blowing up ' with former FSB officer and dissident Alexander Litvinenko.

"Their positions remain completely opposite. Zelensky's goal is to preserve Ukrainian independence, while Putin's goal is to keep and destroy its independence.

"There is no room for compromise because Putin is not ready to leave alone."

He added: "Putin tried to take Ukraine in 2014 through annexation. He tried again in 2022 with a blitzkrieg. He failed both times.

"His last hope was that he would take Ukraine through capitulation in 2025, with Trump back in the White House. But he has failed there too - and the only person who does not see this is Putin himself.

"Trump's final hope was that Europe would stop assisting Ukraine. But this was dashed the moment JD Vance delivered his speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he lectured Europe and failed to mention NATO or even Russian aggression."

Felshtinsky said there was now little scope for Putin to outmanoeuvre Zelensky.

He said: "The only reason Putin would have to go to Turkey is if his conditions were going to be met. They are not. Making an offer for talks and then not going because your conditions are not being met puts Putin in a terrible position and leaves Zelensky with the moral high ground."

Russia expert Keir Giles, of the Chatham House think tank, added: "It does look as though Starmer and Macron together were among the elements that caused the sudden change of tack from Trump.

"Putin needed to look as though he was in control of the process. That is why we have this supposed initiative coming from Moscow, suddenly showing willing."

But Zelensky's offer had unsettled this plan, he said.

"Putin will be looking for a way to engineer Zelensky losing face and himself not. But how exactly that would work, when Zelensky is going to be prepared for all of the tricks, is another matter.

"It is fair to say that Zelensky now has the upper hand. They are both trying to take the initiative, but Zelensky has done it in a more meaningful manner."