India’s crude oil imports from Russia edged lower in September but continued to account for over a third of the country’s total oil purchases, highlighting the persistence of Russian barrels in the Indian fuel supply chain despite mounting US pressure over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed that India’s total crude imports in September stood at around 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
Russian crude remained the largest single supplier, delivering roughly 1.6 million bpd — a 34 per cent share — though this was about 1,60,000 bpd below the average volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025.
Russian crude remains compelling for Indian refiners
“Despite the dip, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners, given their high GPW (gross product worth) margins and discounts relative to alternatives,” Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, told PTI.
Iraq followed as India’s second-largest supplier at around 8,81,115 bpd, with Saudi Arabia at 6,03,471 bpd, the UAE at 5,94,152 bpd, and the United States at 2,06,667 bpd.
Russia became India’s top crude supplier after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, surpassing traditional sources such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia. With Western buyers shunning Russian barrels, Moscow offered steep discounts, prompting Indian refiners to increase purchases and secure cheaper crude to meet rising domestic demand. The Russian share of India’s crude basket surged from less than 1 per cent before the Ukraine war to over 40 per cent.
Russian flows to remain steady amid diversification efforts
“Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mix, though refiners are clearly placing more emphasis on diversification across the Middle East, Americas, and Africa,” Ritolia said. He added that India-bound Russian spot loadings are expected to remain flat to slightly higher in October-December compared with the previous quarter.
Ritolia noted that ongoing disruptions to Russia’s downstream system could keep crude exports steady, with discounts potentially rising to support flows. “In October-December, current flows of 1.6-1.8 million bpd of Russian imports look more realistic, with upside capped unless market dynamics (higher discounts) shift significantly in Russia’s favour,” he said.
Looking ahead, the anticipated resumption of northern Iraqi crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port could influence Russian flows. If Turkey reduces its Russian intake — estimated at 3,50,000 bpd in Q3 2025 — displaced barrels are likely to be diverted to Asia, with India and China as key destinations.
“The Russia-India crude relationship is now more about balance than barrels. India is unlikely to step away from Russian supplies in the near to mid-term.
Russian barrels still priced below most other grades, and even with narrower discounts compared to the USD 10-20 per barrel spreads seen earlier, refiners won’t leave a dollar on the table unless directed by New Delhi — just as happened with Iranian barrels,” Ritolia said.
He added that while Indian refiners are gradually broadening their sourcing baskets to enhance energy security and flexibility, Russian crude remains central to India’s fuel supply.
“Supply chains are embedded, term deals are locked, and contracts are typically signed 6-10 weeks before arrival. Rewiring all that takes time. In practice, Indian refiners are gradually broadening their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity, and flexibility,” he said.
(With inputs from PTI)
Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed that India’s total crude imports in September stood at around 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
Russian crude remained the largest single supplier, delivering roughly 1.6 million bpd — a 34 per cent share — though this was about 1,60,000 bpd below the average volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025.
Russian crude remains compelling for Indian refiners
“Despite the dip, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners, given their high GPW (gross product worth) margins and discounts relative to alternatives,” Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, told PTI.
Iraq followed as India’s second-largest supplier at around 8,81,115 bpd, with Saudi Arabia at 6,03,471 bpd, the UAE at 5,94,152 bpd, and the United States at 2,06,667 bpd.
Russia became India’s top crude supplier after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, surpassing traditional sources such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia. With Western buyers shunning Russian barrels, Moscow offered steep discounts, prompting Indian refiners to increase purchases and secure cheaper crude to meet rising domestic demand. The Russian share of India’s crude basket surged from less than 1 per cent before the Ukraine war to over 40 per cent.
Russian flows to remain steady amid diversification efforts
“Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mix, though refiners are clearly placing more emphasis on diversification across the Middle East, Americas, and Africa,” Ritolia said. He added that India-bound Russian spot loadings are expected to remain flat to slightly higher in October-December compared with the previous quarter.
Ritolia noted that ongoing disruptions to Russia’s downstream system could keep crude exports steady, with discounts potentially rising to support flows. “In October-December, current flows of 1.6-1.8 million bpd of Russian imports look more realistic, with upside capped unless market dynamics (higher discounts) shift significantly in Russia’s favour,” he said.
Looking ahead, the anticipated resumption of northern Iraqi crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port could influence Russian flows. If Turkey reduces its Russian intake — estimated at 3,50,000 bpd in Q3 2025 — displaced barrels are likely to be diverted to Asia, with India and China as key destinations.
“The Russia-India crude relationship is now more about balance than barrels. India is unlikely to step away from Russian supplies in the near to mid-term.
Russian barrels still priced below most other grades, and even with narrower discounts compared to the USD 10-20 per barrel spreads seen earlier, refiners won’t leave a dollar on the table unless directed by New Delhi — just as happened with Iranian barrels,” Ritolia said.
He added that while Indian refiners are gradually broadening their sourcing baskets to enhance energy security and flexibility, Russian crude remains central to India’s fuel supply.
“Supply chains are embedded, term deals are locked, and contracts are typically signed 6-10 weeks before arrival. Rewiring all that takes time. In practice, Indian refiners are gradually broadening their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity, and flexibility,” he said.
(With inputs from PTI)
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