Pollster Nate Silver's latest election forecast indicates that national polls now favor Kamala Harris, with the vice president leading former President Donald Trump by three percentage points. The figures are 49.1 percent for Harris compared to Trump's 46.1 percent.
In his update, Silver mentioned, “A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points.” He added, “Forecast still in toss-up range, but we’re at a point where you’d probably rather have Harris’s hand to play."
Silver’s model suggests that Harris's path to victory would likely involve securing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Arizona is considered less critical, while North Carolina and Georgia could also play significant roles.
Despite his interest in elections, Silver states he generally avoids politics. On a podcast, he expressed support for Harris but added a condition that might sway his vote. “If Kamala Harris were to say I want to ban poker, I would feel targeted as a poker player, and clearly this is a community that wouldn't be interested in the votes of people like me, so why would I want to be in their coalition?” Silver remarked.
He also commented, "I don't think it's a bad thing if people vote in terms of their narrow self-interest. That's a part of a political economy that can be healthy," noting that Democrats might lose votes because "they are annoying."
Polls have favored Democratic nominee Harris, with the exception of Arizona, where a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll showed the ex-president leading by 6 points. However, analyst Silver suggested that the Arizona results may not significantly impact the overall election outcome. He mentioned that his model "somewhat shrugs Arizona polling off since it’s relatively unlikely to be the tipping-point state."
Additionally, Silver noted on social platform X that updates to economic data have improved the economic outlook, which could benefit Harris. Last week, Harris regained the lead in Silver's election forecast for the first time since late August.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey, Harris has a narrow lead in six swing states and is tied with Trump in Georgia. She also holds a 4.1 point advantage over the former president in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's aggregate poll.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver wrote. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
In his update, Silver mentioned, “A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points.” He added, “Forecast still in toss-up range, but we’re at a point where you’d probably rather have Harris’s hand to play."
The one place where she's had a string of bad polls is Arizona, but it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024
Forecast still in toss-up range, but we're at a point where you'd probably rather have Harris's hand to play.
Silver’s model suggests that Harris's path to victory would likely involve securing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Arizona is considered less critical, while North Carolina and Georgia could also play significant roles.
Despite his interest in elections, Silver states he generally avoids politics. On a podcast, he expressed support for Harris but added a condition that might sway his vote. “If Kamala Harris were to say I want to ban poker, I would feel targeted as a poker player, and clearly this is a community that wouldn't be interested in the votes of people like me, so why would I want to be in their coalition?” Silver remarked.
He also commented, "I don't think it's a bad thing if people vote in terms of their narrow self-interest. That's a part of a political economy that can be healthy," noting that Democrats might lose votes because "they are annoying."
Polls have favored Democratic nominee Harris, with the exception of Arizona, where a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll showed the ex-president leading by 6 points. However, analyst Silver suggested that the Arizona results may not significantly impact the overall election outcome. He mentioned that his model "somewhat shrugs Arizona polling off since it’s relatively unlikely to be the tipping-point state."
Additionally, Silver noted on social platform X that updates to economic data have improved the economic outlook, which could benefit Harris. Last week, Harris regained the lead in Silver's election forecast for the first time since late August.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey, Harris has a narrow lead in six swing states and is tied with Trump in Georgia. She also holds a 4.1 point advantage over the former president in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's aggregate poll.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver wrote. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
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